Estimate of the final 3 Elections
2008 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Updated May 23, 2008, 7am
These estimates are based on the complex proportional percentage allocation system using Congressional Districts plus Statewide allocation for the remaining 10 elections.
The PLEO & At-Large are based on the Statewide results. The Congressional Districts won't reflect the specific areas, but will be using them just as a number to calculate the Delegates that are available in each.
*Reminder, these are just my own estimates*
Note: There are approximately 4-5 Million Registered Voters yet to cast their ballots in the last 3 elections.
| State: | Approximate Registered Voters: |
Clinton Delegates: |
Obama Delegates: |
| Montana | 649,436 | 8 | 8 |
| Puerto Rico | 2,440,131 | 33 | 22 |
| South Dakota | 489,281 | 7 | 8 |
|
Total: |
3,578,848 | 48 | 38 |
|
Difference: |
+10 |
2,210 Total Delegates Needed / 2,026 without FL & MI
Neither Candidate can reach 2,210 without Super Delegates
86 Pledged left in remaining elections / 239 Supers haven't endorsed yet (209
without FL & MI)
(Edwards has 9 Pledged Delegates left / 20 including Florida)
|
Estimated Delegates after final 3
Elections |
|||||
| Popular Vote: | Est. Pledged: |
Current Supers: |
Total: | ||
| Clinton: | n/a | 1548 | 282 | 1830 | 2026 |
| Obama: | with Edwards remaining Deles. | 1704 | 307 | 2011 | |
| Clinton possibly pulls slightly ahead in Votes | -156 | -25 | -181 | ||
|
Estimated Delegates after
final 3 Elections |
|||||
| Clinton: | n/a | 1726 | 297 | 2023 | 2210 |
| Obama: | with Edwards remaining Deles. | 1784 | 317 | 2101 | |
| Clinton ahead good probability in Votes | -58 | -20 | -78 | ||
|
Estimated after final 3 Elections |
|||||
| Clinton: | n/a | 1722 | 297 | 2019 | 2210 |
| Obama:: | with Edwards remaining Deles. | 1843 | 317 | 2160 | |
| Clinton ahead good probability in Votes | -121 | -20 | -141 | ||
Estimate of the Final 6 Elections:
Guam
Closed Caucus -
May 3, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 3 | 16.650% to 49.983% | 1 | 49.984% to 83.316% | 2 |
| PLEO | 0 | n/a | 0 | n/a | 0 |
| At-Large | 1 | 45% to 54% | .5 | 45% to 54% | .5 |
| Total: | 4 |
Clinton - |
1.5 |
Obama - |
2.5 |
Indiana
Modified Primary - May 6, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.972% to 41.658% | 2 |
| CD2 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| CD3 | 4 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 |
| CD4 | 4 | 62.488% to 87.487% | 3 | 15% to 37.487% | 1 |
| CD5 | 4 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 |
| CD6 | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| CD7 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.972% to 41.658% | 2 |
| CD8 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| CD9 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| PLEO | 9 | 49.995% to 61.105% | 5 | 38.884% to 49.994% | 4 |
| At-Large | 16 | 54% to 59% | 9 | 41% to 46% | 7 |
| Total: | 72 |
Clinton - |
41 |
Obama - |
31 |
Kentucky
Closed
Primary - May 20, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| CD2 | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| CD3 | 8 | 56.244% to 68.743% | 6 | 31.244% to 43.743% | 2 |
| CD4 | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| CD5 | 5 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 |
| CD6 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 |
| PLEO | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 |
| At-Large | 11 | 49.996% to 59.086% | 6 | 40.905% to 49.995% | 5 |
| Total:: | 51 |
Clinton - |
31 |
Obama - |
20 |
Montana
Open
Primary - June 3, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| East | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| West | 5 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 |
| PLEO | 2 | 24.975% to 74.974% | 1 | 24.975% to 74.974% | 1 |
| At-Large | 4 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 |
| Total: | 16 |
Clinton - |
8 |
Obama - |
8 |
North Carolina
Modified
Primary - May 6, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| CD2 | 6 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 |
| CD3 | 4 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 |
| CD4 | 9 | 38.884% to 49.994% | 4 | 49.995% to 61.105% | 5 |
| CD5 | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| CD6 | 5 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 |
| CD7 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| CD8 | 5 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| CD9 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 |
| CD10 | 5 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 |
| CD11 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| CD12 | 7 | 64.279% to 78.564% | 5 | 21.422% to 35.707% | 2 |
| CD13 | 7 | 35.708% to 49.992% | 3 | 49.993% to 64.278% | 4 |
| PLEO | 12 | 45.829% to 54.162% | 6 | 45.829% to 54.162% | 6 |
| At-Large | 26 | 45% to 48% | 12 | 49% to 55% | 14 |
| Total: | 115 |
Clinton - |
57 |
Obama - |
58 |
Oregon
Closed
Primary - May 20, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 7 | 49.993% to 64.278% | 4 | 35.708% to 49.992% | 3 |
| CD2 | 5 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 |
| CD3 | 9 | 49.995% to 61.105% | 5 | 38.884% to 49.994% | 4 |
| CD4 | 7 | 35.708% to 49.992% | 3 | 49.993% to 64.278% | 4 |
| CD5 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 |
| PLEO | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| At-Large | 12 | 45.829% to 54.162% | 6 | 45.829% to 54.162% | 6 |
| Total: | 52 |
Clinton - |
27 |
Obama - |
25 |
Puerto Rico
Open Primary -
June 1, 2008:
|
SD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| SD1 | 5 ? | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| SD2 | 5 | 69.990% to 89.989% | 4 | 15% to 29.989% | 1 |
| SD3 | 4 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 |
| SD4 | 5 ? | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 |
| SD5 | 4 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488% to 62.487% | 2 |
| SD6 | 5 ? | 49.990% to 69.989% | 3 | 29.990% to 49.989% | 2 |
| SD7 | 4 | 62.488% to 87.487% | 3 | 15% to 37.487% | 1 |
| SD8 | 4 | 62.488% to 87.487% | 3 | 15% to 37.487% | 1 |
| PLEO | 7 | 49.993% to 64.278% | 4 | 35.708% to 49.992% | 3 |
| At-Large | 12 | 54.163% to 62.495% | 7 | 37.496% to 45.828% | 5 |
| Total: | 55 |
Clinton - |
33 |
Obama - |
22 |
South Dakota
Closed
Primary - June 3, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 9 | 38.884% to 49.994% | 4 | 49.995% to 61.105% | 5 |
| PLEO | 2 | 24.975% to 74.974% | 1 | 24.975% to 74.974% | 1 |
| At-Large | 4 | 37.488 % to 62.487% | 2 | 37.488 % to 62.487% | 2 |
| Total: | 15 |
Clinton - |
7 |
Obama - |
8 |
West
Virginia
Modified
Primary - May 13, 2008:
|
CD's |
Dele. |
Clinton |
Delegates |
Obama |
Delegates |
| CD1 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 |
| CD2 | 6 | 58.325% to 74.991% | 4 | 24.992% to 41.658% | 2 |
| CD3 | 6 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 | 41.659% to 58.324% | 3 |
| PLEO | 3 | 49.984% to 83.316% | 2 | 16.650% to 49.983% | 1 |
| At-Large | 7 | 49.993% to 64.278% | 4 | 35.708% to 49.992% | 3 |
| Total: | 28 |
Clinton - |
17 |
Obama - |
11 |
Total of above estimates:
| State: | Clinton: | Obama: |
| Guam | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Indiana | 41 | 31 |
| Kentucky | 30 | 21 |
| Montana | 8 | 8 |
| North Carolina | 57 | 58 |
| Oregon | 27 | 25 |
| Pennsylvania | 92 | 66 |
| Puerto Rico | 33 | 22 |
| South Dakota | 7 | 8 |
| West Virginia | 17 | 11 |
|
Total: |
313.5 | 252.5 |
|
Difference: |
+61 |
Percentages:
| 2 Delegates | 3 Delegates | 4 Delegates | 5 Delegates | |||||||||||
| 15% | .300 | 0 | 15% | .450 | 0 | 15% | .600 | 1 | 15% | 0.75 | 1 | |||
| 24.974% | .4994 | 16.649% | .4994 | 37.487% | 1.4994 | 29.989% | 1.4994 | |||||||
| 24.975% | .4995 | 1 | 16.650% | .4995 | 1 | 37.488% | 1.4995 | 2 | 29.990% | 1.4995 | 2 | |||
| 74.974% | 1.4994 | 49.983% | 1.4994 | 62.487% | 2.4994 | 49.989% | 2.4994 | |||||||
| 74.975% | 1.4995 | 2 | 49.984% | 1.4995 | 2 | 62.488% | 2.4995 | 3 | 49.990% | 2.4995 | 3 | |||
| 83.316% | 2.4994 | 87.487% | 3.4994 | 69.989% | 3.4994 | |||||||||
| 83.317% | 2.4995 | 3 | 87.488% | 3.4995 | 4 | 69.990% | 3.4995 | 4 | ||||||
| 89.989% | 4.4994 | |||||||||||||
| 89.990% | 4.4995 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| 6 Delegates | 7 Delegates | 8 Delegates | 9 Delegates | |||||||||||
| 15% | .900 | 1 | 15% | 1.05 | 1 | 15% | 1.2 | 1 | 15% | 1.35 | 1 | |||
| 24.991% | 1.4994 | 21.421% | 1.4994 | 18.743% | 1.4994 | 16.661% | 1.4994 | |||||||
| 24.992% | 1.4995 | 2 | 21.422% | 1.4995 | 2 | 18.744% | 1.4995 | 2 | 16.662% | 1.4995 | 2 | |||
| 41.658% | 2.4994 | 35.707% | 2.4994 | 31.243% | 2.4994 | 27.772 | 2.4994 | |||||||
| 41.659% | 2.4995 | 3 | 35.708% | 2.4995 | 3 | 31.244% | 2.4995 | 3 | 27.773% | 2.4995 | 3 | |||
| 58.324% | 3.4994 | 49.992% | 3.4994 | 43.743% | 3.4994 | 38.883% | 3.4994 | |||||||
| 58.325% | 3.4995 | 4 | 49.993% | 3.4995 | 4 | 43.744% | 3.4995 | 4 | 38.884% | 3.4995 | 4 | |||
| 74.991% | 4.4994 | 64.278% | 4.4994 | 56.243% | 4.4994 | 49.994% | 4.4994 | |||||||
| 74.992% | 4.4995 | 5 | 64.279% | 4.4995 | 5 | 56.244% | 4.4995 | 5 | 49.995% | 4.4995 | 5 | |||
| 91.658% | 5.4994 | 78.564% | 5.4994 | 68.743% | 5.4994 | 61.105% | 5.4994 | |||||||
| 91.659% | 5.4995 | 6 | 78.565% | 5.4995 | 6 | 68.744% | 5.4995 | 6 | 61.106% | 5.4995 | 6 | |||
| 92.849% | 6.4994 | 81.243% | 6.4994 | 72.216% | 6.4994 | |||||||||
| 92.850% | 6.4995 | 7 | 81.244% | 6.4995 | 7 | 72.217% | 6.4995 | 7 | ||||||
| 93.743% | 7.4994 | 83.327% | 7.4994 | |||||||||||
| 93.744% | 7.4995 | 8 | 83.328% | 7.4995 | 8 | |||||||||
| 94.439% | 8.4995 | |||||||||||||
| 94.439% | 8.4995 | 9 | ||||||||||||
The Popular Vote Totals are the most recent results
taken from each Secretary of State office
as of May 23, 2008
Popular Vote & Delegate Totals
Note: The popular votes in Michigan and Florida have already been certified by election officials in both states, and officially tallied by the two Secretary of States. Michigan Official Results and Florida Official Results.
|
as of 5/23/08 |
Popular Votes with MI &
FL: Edwards Delegates have begun switching over (Delegate #'s used for IA, ME, NV, WA) |
|||||||
| Primary States Popular Votes: |
Caucus Results: |
Total Votes Both: |
Primary Pledged: |
Caucus Pledged: |
Total Pledged: |
Supers: |
Total
Delegates: |
|
| Clinton: | 17,258,997 | 182,349 | 17,441,346 (47.89%) | 1,529 | 149.55 | 1678.5 | 296.5 | 1975 |
| Obama:: | 16,893,533 | 393,412 | 17,286,945 (47.46%) | 1,433 | 293.55 | 1726.5 | 316.5 | 2043 |
|
Edwards:: |
991,020 | 2,902 | 993,922 (2.73%) | 15 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
|
Uncommitted: |
316,497 | 3,820 | 320,317 (0.88%) | 55 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 55 |
|
Others: |
378,578 | 1,472 | 380,050 (1.04%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 35,838,625 | 583,955 | 36,422,580 | 3,032 | 448 | 3,480 | 613 | 4,093 |
| Clinton either behind or ahead of Obama:: | ||||||||
| Clinton: | +365,464 | -211,063 | +154,401 | +96 | -144 | -48 | -20 | -68 |
| +154,401 (+0.44%) Total Votes Clinton | ||||||||
|
as of 5/23/08 |
Delegates with FL
January results (105/67),
and with 69/59 Michigan Proposal and Edwards Delegates beginning to switch over |
||||
| Primary Pledged: |
Caucus Pledged: |
Total Pledged: |
Supers: |
Total
Delegates: |
|
| Clinton: | 1,525 | 149.55 | 1674.5 | 296.5 | 1971 |
| Obama: | 1,492 | 293.55 | 1785.5 | 316.5 | 2102 |
|
Edwards:: |
15 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Total: | 3,032 | 448 | 3,480 | 613 | 4,093 |
| Clinton either behind or ahead of Obama:: | |||||
| Clinton: | +33 | -144 | -111 | -20 | -131 |
|
+154,401 (+0.44%) Total Votes Clinton |
|||||
Statistics of the Primaries & Caucuses
Swing State Primaries Popular Votes
Florida Stats from 2000 to 2008
Election Results by State Summary Page
Spreadsheet Version Election Results
Best source of Delegate
Totals - Only source on the web that shows the math!!
Super
Delegate Endorsements
USA Election Atlas
Electoral Vote Distribution
Interactive Electoral Map
Congressional District Allocation Chart from the DNC
Congressional
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Delegate Selection Rules from the DNC
Hillary Clinton
Supporters Forum
Side by Side
Comparison of Hillary & Obama
Taylor Marsh - the antidote to
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Hillary Green
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Official Hillary Clinton Website
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